Reforms spearheaded by Minister for the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), Bill Shorten MP, are delivering significant cost efficiencies, with Scheme expenditure projected to be $1 billion lower than forecast in the 2024-25 Budget.
The recently released Annual Financial Sustainability Report (AFSR) projections, summarised in the NDIA Annual Report, estimate total Scheme expenses at $210.3 billion for the four years to June 2028. This is $2.3 billion below the AFSR’s June 2023 projections and $1 billion lower than forecasts for the same period in the 2024-25 Budget.
These reforms are expected to stabilise Scheme expense growth by $19 billion over the next four years. Growth for 2024-25 is now forecast at 12%, a significant drop from 19% in 2023-24 and 23% the year before Minister Shorten’s tenure began. The NDIS remains on track to achieve the 8% growth target set by the Australian Government and National Cabinet less than a year ago.
The recently enacted NDIS Bill No.1, effective 3 October 2024, is also driving down plan inflation—previously exacerbated by unscrupulous providers encouraging rapid exhaustion of participant funding.
Minister Shorten stated, “I am extremely proud that we are well on our way to getting the NDIS back on track. The Scheme continues to grow, but we’ve ensured it operates more effectively for all Australians, without unsustainable growth.
“The NDIS now supports over 660,000 participants, transforming lives while maintaining its long-term viability. This progress highlights the Government’s commitment to ensuring every dollar is directed to those who need it most.”
Key achievements highlighted include:
- Stopping more than $56 million in fraudulent claims through the Crack Down on Fraud program.
- Scheme expenses for the 12 months to June 30 were approximately $600 million lower than the 2024-25 Budget estimate.
- Stabilising plan inflation, with rates remaining below levels seen since September 2022.
- Increased participant exits as early supports improve long-term outcomes.
- Reduced risk of participants overspending their plans.
To enhance participant support, the NDIA bolstered its workforce with 1,210 new APS employees in 2023-24, over 55% of whom are in participant-facing roles. The NDIA planner workforce grew by 8.4%, with nearly 22% of staff identifying as having a disability—well above the APS average.
Minister Shorten praised the collective efforts behind these milestones, saying, “The reforms and legislative changes are putting participants at the centre of the NDIS, ensuring a stronger and more sustainable Scheme for future generations.”
The full Annual Financial Sustainability Report is set for release later this year.